China and Russia Are Frenemies With Benefits
U.S. policy has helped push two neighbors closer. But there are limits to Beijing’s ability — and willingness — to cushion the impact of a decisive break with the West.
Is a real alliance within reach?
Photographer: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images EuropeWhen Vladimir Putin meets Xi Jinping in Beijing on Friday, he can be sure of a warm welcome. Expect statements of unity and support, sprinkled with headline-grabbing gas pipeline announcements, comforting funding deals and slightly stilted photo opportunities. China’s leader needs a high-profile guest at his underpopulated Winter Olympics. Russia’s president, facing the prospect of crippling economic sanctions from the West, needs an economic and political lifeline.
It’s a meeting loaded with significance — Xi has kept diplomacy virtual through the pandemic and Putin has largely eschewed foreign trips. But it’s a timely show of pragmatism, rather than “unbreakable friendship,” much less a step toward a solid anti-Western alliance. Will Beijing support Moscow in the event that brinkmanship in Ukraine results in a military incursion, and even heavier economic punishment and political isolation? To a point, yes. Can it replace ties with the West? That seems far more unlikely.