Mohamed A. El-Erian , Columnist

Inflation and China Failed to Rattle Markets. 2022 Might Be Different.

Investors were relatively unfazed by the year’s two big economic surprises. But the effects of rising prices and Beijing’s corporate clampdown could play out in unexpected ways next year.

Keeping calm.

Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

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A year ago, most economists expected that the Covid-19 pandemic would continue to weigh heavily on the global marketplace, and that the recovery process would be far from smooth. But two changes to the landscape — rapid inflation, and questions about the viability of investing in China — caught nearly everyone off-guard.

Even if we had foreseen these developments, it is unlikely that we would have gotten right their broader implications. And we probably wouldn’t have guessed that markets would by and large take the news in stride. That bears remembering as we attempt to make projections for the coming year while still dogged by the pandemic and other uncertainties.