What to Watch as Congress Winds Down

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Looked at one way, the current session of Congress could wind up being one of the most productive in years. Looked at another? There’s a lot that hasn’t been done, including some basics. We’ll know more when the session wraps up sometime between now and (probably) Christmas, including what remains to get done when the second session of this Congress gets underway in January. Here’s what to watch for this month.

The main event: The biggest focus is still on the second part of the Democrats’ two-bill agenda. A proposal they call “Build Back Better” has passed the House, and Majority Leader Chuck Schumer intends to have the Senate pass its version soon. Senator Joe Manchin isn’t so sure. It’s not just whether (probably!) and when (maybe before Christmas) the bill will pass; plenty of policy decisions are still up for grabs, including deductions for state and local taxes, details of energy and climate provisions, and more. If the bill does pass, expect House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to act quickly to support the new Senate version, even if that means calling lawmakers back late in the month. She’s not going to wait for Republicans to rally against whatever it is that the Senate winds up including.

Also big: The annual defense authorization act is stalled in a dispute over which amendments will be allowed in the Senate. Republicans want to offer more than Democrats are permitting; Democrats argue that they’re offering far more than Republicans did when they were in the majority. It’s unclear whether this will get worked out or not; if the Senate does act, the two chambers will have to reach a compromise, which may push the bill into January. Speaking of things stalled in the Senate: Republican filibustering has already delayed dozens of executive-branch nominations, leaving President Joe Biden with fewer confirmed officials at this point than Donald Trump had, and far fewer than Barack Obama or George W. Bush had. Perhaps Republicans will change their behavior. Perhaps Senate Democrats will apply more pressure, including by imposing new procedures to defeat such delays. The Republican stalling narrows the pipeline but still allows the slim Democratic majority to choose the order in which nominations are processed; expect rapid action on Biden’s Federal Reserve Board nominees.

To keep an eye on: We’re back to countdowns on the possibility of a default unless the debt limit is increased and on the possibility of a government shutdown unless Congress passes a further short-term spending bill. Neither disaster seems likely — perhaps because Democrats might do a filibuster “carve out” to raise the debt limit. Expect a lot of smoke but little fire on both of these countdowns.

Don’t forget: Both the defense authorization and Build Back Better are huge bills, and therefore will include lots of important provisions that don’t reach the headlines — or even show up in general-interest news articles. Plus they may be the biggest trains leaving the station for a while, so watch for senators to add all sorts of things at the last minute. Meanwhile, Congress will probably keep the government running with a short-term spending bill (which itself could wind up containing riders that various groups are seeking to pass), but that means they’ll be pushing back work on proper spending bills — which were due at the end of September — into January. Or later.

1. Matthew Green at Mischiefs of Faction on Kevin McCarthy’s campaign for speaker. Good points; the chance for chaos among House Republicans in 2023 may be high, but that won’t necessarily mean a speaker contest if they’re in the majority.

2. John Sides and Michael Tesler on race and the courtroom.

3. Jan Stockbruegger at the Monkey Cage on green shipping routes.

4. Robert Farley on presidents, Congress and war powers.

5. My Bloomberg Opinion colleague Conor Sen on the future of Arkansas.

6. And if you’re looking for resources about the congressional investigation into the Jan. 6 riot, Rohini Kurup and Natalie K. Orpett are introducing a new document stockpile at Lawfare, along with analysis.

Important Note: We’re retiring this newsletter in favor of a new feature on Bloomberg.com that allows readers to sign up for emails of my latest columns. I’ll still be writing them every morning, but you’ll only receive them in your inbox if you hit the blue link under my name here — click to the page, then click on “Follow+” to sign up.