Could Taiwan Be the Next Crisis That Delays Your Retirement?

Future U.S. pensioners should feel pretty happy about their golden goose. A strong stock market, coupled with a dovish Federal Reserve, has buffed up their retirement accounts. For the first time since the 2008 financial crisis, corporate pension plans are edging close to being fully funded. Over the past year, their collective retirement pot has grown an average 15.6%, data compiled by Milliman shows.

But adversity is always looming over the horizon, and investors I spoke to in New York recently have their eye on one potential crisis that could upend decades of portfolio planning: What happens if a war breaks out over Taiwan? Despite more frequent diplomatic contacts and a joint Glasgow statement on climate change, the U.S. and China nonetheless have entered dangerous territory over the island that Beijing claims as its own. Chinese bombers have flown in recent weeks off the southern end of Taiwan, while U.S. politicians talked tough. On Sunday, refueling aircraft joined the People’s Liberation Army’s air patrol for the first time after a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers vowed “rock solid” support for Taiwan during a surprise visit.