U.S. Can't Rely on Tripwire Forces to Deter China and Russia
A small contingent of troops can dissuade an enemy from attacking, but only if backed up by a much bigger commitment.
A few good men in West Berlin, 1965.
Source: Three Lions via Getty Images
If U.S. troops were deployed on Taiwan, China’s government-run Global Times warned in August, Beijing would “destroy and expel” them and “realize reunification by force.” Two months later, media reports confirmed that the Pentagon had indeed placed small numbers of U.S. forces on Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army didn’t strike. But the episode was enough to make one wonder whether the U.S. can rely on the presence of its own military personnel to discourage a Chinese assault.
It also raised broader questions about whether so-called tripwire deployments — forces too small to defeat a determined attacker — can still help deter aggression, in Taiwan or elsewhere. The answer is that tripwire forces can indeed signal American resolve to protect vulnerable territory. But they only have the desired effect if tied to a credible plan for what happens after the shooting starts.