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Justin Fox

New York’s Crime Wave Is Showing Signs of Breaking

Murders are poised to drop below 2020 levels soon. But there and elsewhere, violence is still a lot worse than before the pandemic.

Violent crime rates in 2021 are still grim, no matter where you live.

Violent crime rates in 2021 are still grim, no matter where you live.

Photographer: Joshua Lott/Getty Images 

Sometime in the next couple of weeks, if current trends continue, the number of murders in New York City in 2021 will fall below the year-to-date totals from 2020.

The numbers in the latest weekly crime report from the City of New York Police Department, aka NYPD, aren’t exactly shout-from-the-rooftops good news. Murders in the city are still running 37.6% above the 2019 pace. The number of shooting victims, up a stunning 102.6% over two years ago, will probably fall below 2020’s tally at some point, but it’s not on track to undershoot by much. (If you calculate from the charts you’ll get slightly different percentages because the cumulative weekly data in the charts includes a few days from the previous year.)