Meghan L. O'Sullivan, Columnist

Saudi-UAE Split Won’t End Until the World Goes Green

The Emiratis won this month's showdown because they are far better prepared for the demise of OPEC+.

July 25, 2021 at 5:00 AM UTC

Meghan L. O’Sullivan is a professor of international affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School and the North American chair of the Trilateral Commission, she served on the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007.

Oil’s sunset?
Photographer: Jean-Francois Monier/AFP/Getty Images

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The friction between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates that had held oil markets hostage finally ended last week, with an announcement that the Emirati quota from which production cuts are calculated will be increased.

Thus ends the latest drama within the ranks of OPEC+, but the curtain did not fall before giving us a preview of how that consortium is likely to ultimately unravel. The trigger won’t be the historical and political tension between the two Gulf powers, but their opposing views of the coming global shift away from fossil fuels and the way in which they can best protect their interests during the energy transition.