What’s the Real Goal of Infrastructure Talks?

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Tuesday was a newsy day for infrastructure. First, talks between the White House and a group of Republican senators broke down. Then two separate sets of negotiations by bipartisan House and Senate groups seemed to be gaining steam. So either bipartisanship is dead, or a deal is emerging or — well, it’s getting complicated.

Perhaps it’s useful at this point to think about some of the objectives that various players have, which may not be closely aligned with what they say they want. So what are the goals?

Passing a bill. President Joe Biden certainly wants something to pass. His reputation for getting stuff done is on the line, and he certainly wants a bill-signing ceremony. It’s likely that Democratic leaders in Congress want the same. That includes policy leaders (generally committee chairs, but others too). Republicans? Not so much. In fact, preventing a bill from passing could be the top goal for Republican leaders.

Policy gains. A separate but overlapping question involves the substance of the bill. Biden probably wants the actual policies embedded in his proposal — such as spending on roads and bridges, or support for manufacturing — even more than he wants a signing ceremony, especially if he thinks they’ll provide an economic boost that would help Democrats in 2022 and 2024. Thus he might turn down a bill that could get him a “win” if it doesn’t fulfill his substantive objectives; how to balance these priorities is perhaps the biggest question for the White House. Democrats in Congress should care about this too. Republicans, on the other hand, may have mixed feelings, since they may want specific benefits for their constituents but aren’t enthusiastic about short-term economic advantages for the in-party.

Reputation for bipartisanship. Yup, this is a Biden goal as well, although surely it’s less important to him than the substance. It’s also a goal for the legislators in both chambers who are now negotiating. But there are complications. Some lawmakers may care more about bolstering such a reputation than about actually getting anything done; they may feel they’ve achieved enough just by getting some publicity for bargaining, whether or not they reach a deal. Does that mean some of the Democrats involved will feel free to vote for a partisan bill after buffing up their bipartisan credentials? We don’t know. They may not know yet.

Are there other goals involved? We might separate the big-picture policy — that is, the overall proposal and its major economic effects — from specific infrastructure projects. It’s likely that even those who oppose the former still support some of the latter, and that might make a difference in how any eventual package gets put together. We could also separate infrastructure goals from their likely effect on the budget. After all, while one might think these things all go together, they don’t have to. It’s plausible that Republicans who are indifferent about or even favor certain projects might think that opposing tax increases is a higher priority.

How all this will sort out isn’t obvious. But looking at it through the incentives and goals of the various politicians involved is usually the first step to understanding what’s going on.

1. Leah Ruppanner and Jennifer Hook at the Monkey Cage on jobs and the pandemic recovery.

2. Lee Drutman on Republicans and democracy.

3. Greg Sargent on the Senate committee report on Jan. 6.

4. Suzy Khimm on the Congressional Review Act.

5. Julian Sanchez on cruise lines, vaccinations and Republican politicians.

6. And my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Peter R. Orszag on inflation.

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