China May Not Know How the Pandemic Started

In recent weeks, interest in the “lab-leak” hypothesis — the idea that the Covid-19 virus might’ve originated at a Chinese research institute — has been surging across the globe.

Although many scientists and pundits had once viewed the idea skeptically, the head of the World Health Organization told reporters in March that it “requires further investigation.” Last month, President Joe Biden asked U.S. intelligence agencies to look into the matter. Several prominent scientists have argued that it’s not crazy.

One reason there isn’t a clear answer is that the Chinese government has refused to release key data related to the pandemic. Such evasiveness has only fueled further suspicions and spurred acceptance of a parallel theory that China knows exactly what happened and is engaged in an elaborate ruse to mislead the world.

That’s almost certainly untrue. In fact, it’s quite possible that Chinese scientists have no idea how the pandemic began — and that the government’s primary objective is restricting information on the topic altogether, on the theory that no news is better than bad news.

Certainly, it has failed to be forthcoming. For years, the Wuhan Institute of Virology has played a key role in the investigation of coronaviruses. So when Covid-19 first emerged in Wuhan, suspicion naturally turned to the lab. Thus far, the institute has refused to release any data that would dispute such claims. Its logs, biosafety records and once-public viral database all remain closed. When members of a WHO delegation visited in February, they were allowed just three hours to speak to lab personnel (watched by government minders) and no access to records.

Lab-leak proponents point to such secrecy as evidence for their theory. But for China, it’s not at all unusual. In fact, the government has also stalled probes into whether the virus had a natural origin, the most likely alternative theory. Shortly after the first cases were reported, officials took animal samples from the Huanan seafood market where Covid is first thought to have clustered. Yet the data they released to the WHO delegation included little information about live animals and none on illegal trade. A newly published study found that more than 47,000 wild animals were sold in the city in the two-and-a-half years before Covid, most of them live. Many of the species were protected and at least four of them were potential Covid carriers — suggesting that the WHO did not exactly get the full story.

At all levels, official China hardly seems eager to get to the bottom of the Covid mystery. Since last year, the government has severely limited research into the virus. The few studies that are still being funded are closely monitored, and a government order last year specified that any publication on the topic should be orchestrated “like a game of chess.”

It’s possible that China would thwart probes into all the leading hypotheses about Covid’s origin to cover up just one. But more likely, officials fear that any plausible explanation would reflect badly on a government determined to be viewed as a competent ruler of a modern superpower — and preventing such embarrassment is far more important to them than finding out exactly how the pandemic began.

For China, secrecy and propaganda have been part of the disaster-response playbook for decades. In 2002 and 2003, investigations into the SARS outbreak were delayed and impeded in part because the government wanted to avoid bad publicity on the verge of an important Communist Party congress. A few years later, when thousands of children fell ill after consuming milk tainted with plasticizer, officials covered it up rather than risk embarrassment in the run-up to the Olympics. Similarly, Wuhan's government actively obscured the emergence of Covid last year for fear of casting a shadow over another impending Party event.

Viewed this way, a coverup of the lab-leak theory isn't necessarily evidence for a lab leak; it’s more likely part of a longstanding PR strategy used to tamp down uncomfortable questions of any kind. In such a highly politicized environment, foreigners who request Chinese data — whether they’re WHO officials or lone scientists — aren’t viewed as objective investigators but rather as political entities with potentially hostile agendas. Biden’s request to the intelligence agencies will only harden that perception.

Of course, that's no reason to avoid demanding more data and transparency from China on this issue. Understanding the true origins of the coronavirus could hardly be more important. But politicians and scientists alike should bear in mind that China may not actually know anything — and might prefer to keep it that way.