Noah Smith, Columnist

Economists Don't Know Everything About the Economy

As more academics weigh in with concerns about Biden overspending, it bears remembering that their forecasts are often wrong.

Economists’ crystal ball is anything but clear.

Photographer: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

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One of the biggest questions hanging over the U.S. economy right now is whether the government is spending too much money. Some prominent economists are warning it's time to pump the brakes.

President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package came on top of $3.1 trillion in similar outlays back in 2020; and now the president is planning at least two new big spending initiatives for infrastructure and job creation. Some economists worry it's too much and that higher taxes won't be able to cover all the new spending. If that’s the case, and the Federal Reserve chooses to keep interest rates low, the result could be accelerating inflation.