India Must Start Its Road to Economic Recovery Now
The scars of the second wave of the pandemic will run deep but the country has to tailor its ongoing response to the disease to maximize a rebound.
An employee at an Indian factory in lockdown outside the plant.
Photographer: Hindustan Times/Hindustan TimesAt the beginning of 2021, when S&P Global Ratings forecast Indian gross domestic product growth at 11% for the coming financial year, the number looked eminently achievable. Last month, the Goods and Services Tax — a good barometer of economy activity — hit 1.41 trillion rupees ($19.1 billion), its highest ever monthly collection. Indeed, it’s been higher than the benchmark Rs. 1 trillion for seven consecutive months and higher than the same month for the last year for eight consecutive months.
India’s international merchandise trade reached $34 billion in March, the highest ever, and stayed over $30 billion in April. Many short term economic indicators — auto sales, electricity consumption, highway toll collection — were also pointing to a strong recovery after a crushing 2020.