What We Learned Today About the U.S. Economic Recovery

The April jobs report was expected to show more than 1,000,000 new jobs. Instead, it announced one of the largest downside misses in history. What happened? What did we learn about the U.S. economic recovery? We asked Bloomberg columnists for their first impressions.

Usually, it's best not to pay too much attention to the monthly payroll numbers, since there's so much volatility and noise. But when the economy generates only 266,000 jobs instead of an expected 1 million, it's time to be concerned. With more than half the adult population vaccinated and infections trending down, the pandemic itself -- which was by far the biggest barrier to employment in earlier periods -- is waning. Employers might be hesitating out of uncertainty about Covid and about government policy, waiting to see if they can get by without raising wages. But it's also possible that the special $300 per month unemployment benefit (sometimes called Pandemic UI) is making workers hesitant about taking jobs. The best move now would be to wind up the Pandemic UI program and convert it to a job-finding bonus: a lump-sum payment to people who have been unemployed but who now get a job. This would help Americans financially while also providing an incentive for things to get back to normal. — Noah Smith