Why America’s Population Advantage Has Evaporated
There are good and bad reasons, but they all add up to a grim economic future, especially for younger people.
The basic formula for economic growth is more kids.
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Fifteen years ago, population growth was one of America’s core advantages over other nations. With a fertility rate close to the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman — the level necessary for long-term population stability — the U.S. had somehow avoided the birth-rate collapse that had characterized other rich countries (and more than a few poor ones). Add copious immigration on top of that, and our demographic future seemed assured.
Projections had the U.S. substantially increasing its size relative to its main potential rival, China, over the course of the century. And the country’s youthfulness implied a bright future for its economy, its asset markets and the solvency of its pension and health care systems.