The Most Important Number of the Week Is 6.4%
The U.S. economy had a gangbusters first quarter, but that doesn’t mean a new “Roaring `20s” is right around the corner.
Those calling for a new “Roaring `20s” may turn out to be as wrong as those who predicted a prolonger pandemic slump.
Photographer: Hulton Archive/Getty Images
Any notions that the U.S. economy is struggling should have been wiped away on Thursday, when the Commerce Department said gross domestic product expanded at a 6.4% annualized rate in the first quarter. Economists were quick to point out that the strong results mean the level of activity this quarter is now certain to reach — or even exceed — where it was before the pandemic hit.
Clearly, the very few who were brave (or lucky) enough to predict a swift, V-shaped recovery were right — at least for now. And with vaccines providing hope that the worst of the Covid-19 crisis is over, some economists and investors have started to turn their attention to the long-term effects of the pandemic on the economy. The early research suggests those forecasting a new “Roaring ‘20s” may be disappointed.