Amr Adly, Columnist

A Cold War is Brewing on the Blue Nile

The dam dispute between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia threatens the stability of northeastern Africa. 

Filling up with problems.

Photographer: Eduardo Eoteras/AFP

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The failure of the latest negotiations over the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam bodes ill for the stability and security of northeastern Africa. In the absence of a clear agreement that explicitly guarantees Egypt and Sudan access to fresh water while allowing Ethiopia to exploit the river for power generation, the Blue Nile basin could become the theater of a riparian cold war, with an ever-present possibility of direct confrontation between the three states.

Egypt and Sudan worry that Ethiopia, in filling the giant reservoir behind the dam, will cut off their water supply. The Ethiopians argue they are within their rights to exploit the river for much-needed electricity, and maintain they can fill the reservoir without choking off the countries downstream.