The Most Important Number of the Week Is 91.3

Economists are tripping over themselves to see who can boost their U.S. economic growth forecasts the highest. A Bloomberg News survey of 82 economists shows no fewer than 12 expecting gross domestic product to expand 6% or more this year. As I pointed out last week, not since Ronald Reagan occupied the White House in 1984 has growth been that strong. This is one reason bond yields shot higher this week.

There’s just one problem. Most of the optimism is rooted in the notion that consumers are like a coiled spring, ready to loosen the purse strings and spend much of the $1.6 trillion that has built up in excess savings once the economy fully opens. Although that may still happen, some of the data this week suggests it’s no sure bet to happen. Overlooked in the flood of reports showing big gains in manufacturing and housing for January was a report from the Conference Board on February consumer confidence.