A Metal Bull Run Isn’t a Super-Cycle
High hopes for a greener economy and recovering demand are pushing up bellwether commodities. That doesn’t mean there’s enough to sustain years-long gains.
How big a comeback for copper?
Photographer: Simon Dawson/BloombergCommodities super-cycles are tough to call. For most of us, as U.S. Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart once said of pornography, we know one when we see one. That hasn’t stopped Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and peers from nailing their colors to the mast and betting on the combined impact of fiscal support, a more climate-friendly economy and years of frugal investment.
In many basic materials, there have certainly been impressive runs since March or April 2020, thanks to rebounding demand, low interest rates and the impact of pandemic disruptions. Copper inventories are lower than they have been in years, and there’s a dose of financial speculation. A bull market, though, isn’t necessarily the start of a sustained, decades-long period of commodity gains.