Indonesia Wants Fewer Babies. But Is It a Good Idea?

Indonesia’s ambitions to rein in its vast population growth have a big flaw: The plans may work too well. One of the world’s top emerging markets may panic about a shortage of people in a few decades.

President Joko Widodo wants to cut the nation’s fertility rate to 2.1 in four years, down from 2.26 last year, the government announced recently. That’s a laudable goal; Indonesia is the planet’s fourth most-populous country with 270 million souls. The capital, Jakarta, is clogged and sinking, literally. The dominant island in the far-flung archipelago, Java, is home to more than half the republic’s residents and is among the most packed places on earth.

A baby brake is a step frequently taken on the path to becoming a wealthy, developed country and a financial and manufacturing power. South Korea, China, Taiwan and Singapore all curtailed births in the final decades of the 20th century by strenuously pushing family planning. But they overshot and are now scrambling to recalibrate and encourage couples to get busy. Japan has come to epitomize demographic challenges and dwindling headcount. Indonesia should heed lessons from the neighborhood.

Demographic trends evolve slowly over time and it can be years before officials realize they need to dial policies down. By that point, a country’s economy can change dramatically. Societies become more prosperous and urban. Manufacturing, often based on relatively inexpensive wages and a pool of abundant labor, loses some appeal. Services become a bigger part of commercial life. The costs of rearing children, including education and healthcare, climb. The increasing participation of women in the workforce can mean marriage and kids come later in life, as has been the case in Singapore. Powerful forces are hard to unravel once set in motion.