Alexey Navalny Has a Secret Weapon: His Wife

For a decade, Russian President Vladimir Putin has avoided putting his gadfly opponent Alexey Navalny behind bars for any considerable length of time — until Tuesday, when a Moscow court ordered Navalny to spend the next two and a half years in prison. It’s worth examining both why Putin thought it necessary and why he felt he could afford it. These reasons have a direct bearing on Navalny’s chances to fight back, build political support and ultimately challenge Putin for power.

Since becoming a nationally popular anti-corruption blogger, Navalny has twice previously faced the prospect of a lengthy prison term. He’s been accused of diverting proceeds from a state-owned company’s timber sales and of defrauding the French cosmetics company Yves Rocher in partnership with his brother Oleg. In both cases, Navalny received suspended sentences, while his supposed partners in crime, including Oleg, were sent to do hard time. (In both cases, the European Court of Human Rights ordered Russia to pay compensation to all the wrongfully convicted individuals, including Navalny; the government complied). That made some of Navalny’s rivals in the anti-Putin opposition suspect him of being a “Kremlin project.” Putin, who avoids mentioning Navalny by name in order not to raise his stature, welcomed such speculation and kept Navalny out of jail so as not to turn him into a martyr.