Japan's Prime Minister Faces Dark Days Ahead

Yoshihide Suga succeeded Japan’s longest-serving prime minister in September and enjoyed enormous popularity — at first. His subsequent descent has been so rapid that his time in office may be among the shortest.

Suga’s popularity has crashed to 33%, according to a recent survey for the Asahi newspaper, amid a resurgence of Covid cases. The economy has taken a fresh hit and the government declared states of emergency this month in Tokyo and surrounding areas. Speculation is rife that the Olympics, deferred until this summer, will be abandoned altogether.

The prime minister's political prospects are grim and a general election must be held this year. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which has run Japan for most of the post-World War II era, may oust Suga before voters do, according to Tobias S. Harris, author of “The Iconoclast: Shinzo Abe and the New Japan,” published just before Abe said he was standing down because of illness. I corresponded with Harris, a onetime aide to a Japanese politician, via email about Suga’s travails and what Joe Biden’s presidency means for the country. Below is a lightly edited and condensed transcript of our exchange:

DANIEL MOSS: Can Suga recover from this slide in popularity, and how likely is it that he will be replaced before the general election?

TOBIAS S. HARRIS: The steep fall in Suga’s ratings, after enjoying some of the highest support ever, has significantly worsened his chances of survival. Whereas he once had an easy path to winning a full three-year term at the helm of the LDP in the September party election, his government’s handling of Covid-19 has significantly weakened his position. Abe, of course, suffered a similar collapse in support before his resignation: After almost eight years in which his support repeatedly recovered from shocks, the pandemic turned out to be the one thing his support could not withstand.