Michael R. Strain, Columnist

Don’t Be Fooled. The Coronavirus Economy Still Needs Help.

Vaccine hope and job optimism are justified, but so are warnings of another slump. Are you listening, Congress?

November 17, 2020 at 1:30 PM UTC

Michael R. Strain is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is director of economic policy studies and Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the author of “The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It).”

Confident for now.
Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

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Covid-19 is surging — but, finally, the light at the end of the tunnel is visible. Preliminary test results indicate that vaccines being developed by Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. are more effective than many dared to hope. Treatment protocols have improved and new therapies are available. The mortality rate from the virus is dropping.

Medical developments aren’t the only thing to put a bounce in your step. The economy added an eye-popping 638,000 net new jobs in October, and the unemployment rate fell below 7%. The economy has so far avoided structural problems from the virus and recession. Commercial bankruptcy filings are actually below their pre-virus levels. Small businesses are surviving, with last spring’s closures proving temporary and new-business formation surprisingly robust. Large U.S. corporations are beating their earnings estimates.