What Ails Arab Economies Is Older Than Covid-19
Structural problems predating the pandemic are inflicting disproportionate pain.
New disease, old dysfunction.
Photographer: Ryad Kramdi/AFP
The International Monetary is predicting the economies in the Arab nations of the Middle East and North Africa will contract by 5.4% in 2020-21 due to the covid-19 pandemic and the collapse in international oil prices. (I’ve left out Lebanon and Libya, because they face exceptional circumstances.) This means the Arab MENA region, despite being among the least affected by the pandemic in terms of confirmed cases and deaths, will suffer disproportionate economic pain.
The IMF’s economic outlook for the world shows that economic contraction has been proportionate to the public-health crisis caused by the pandemic in most regions — North America, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia. The U.S. economy is to contract by 4.3%, the Euro zone, Latin America and India by 8.3%, 8.1% and 10.3%, respectively. Conversely, China is expected to grow by 1.9%, which reflects Beijing’s effective containment of early outbreaks.