Karl W. Smith, Columnist

One Way Trump Is Doing Better Than Expected

Among Black and Hispanic voters, Trump is showing surprising strength.

October 22, 2020 at 1:00 PM UTC

Karl W. Smith is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Previously, he was vice president for federal policy at the Tax Foundation and assistant professor of economics at the University of North Carolina.

A surprisingly large crowd.
Photographer: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP

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If President Donald Trump loses re-election in two weeks, as seems increasingly likely, one main reason will be the collapse of his support among older Whites without a college degree. Recriminations are sure to focus on that, but it will also be important not to overlook one of Trump’s surprising strengths: the rise in his support among young minority voters.

The president’s strength among minority voters is counterintuitive. Amid the largest sustained protests for racial justice and police reform since the 1960s, Trump called for crackdowns on rioters and repeatedly defended the police. Meanwhile, his zero-tolerance policy at the border was panned around the world as racist and xenophobic.