How to Avoid War Over Taiwan

Donald Trump’s administration has fired shot after shot in its cold war against China, and the risks of a hot war over Taiwan appear to be rising. To prevent a catastrophic conflict, the U.S. would be wise to avoid clumsy, self-defeating provocation and devote a lot more effort to calm, quiet deterrence.

The next few months could be especially dangerous. Both countries have ramped up their naval maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait this year, even as communication between their militaries has dwindled dangerously. Each sees the other as engaging in provocative behavior: China conducting threatening military maneuvers and ominously dropping references to “peaceful” reunification; the U.S. upgrading diplomatic ties with Taiwan and selling it more sophisticated weapons. China, which has recently picked fights with India and Australia while tightening its grip on Hong Kong, seems increasingly unrestrained in its ambitions. Influential voices are pressing the U.S. to shed its traditional ambiguity and issue a binding commitment to defend Taiwan.