Does Jobs Report Even Matter Anymore?
The central bank’s new focus on inflation means the once-vaunted monthly employment data is almost worth ignoring.
The jobs market has come way back.
Photographer: Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images
The U.S. employment report that is usually released on the first Friday of every month has traditionally been viewed as the most important piece of economic data. No longer. The Federal Reserve’s new monetary policy regime has relegated jobs data to the back burner while thrusting inflation to the forefront.
Wall Street is expecting the government to say this Friday that the economy added 850,000 in September, down from the 1.37 million gained in August, according the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The unemployment rate is seen dropping to 8.2% from 8.4%. Considering, though, that consumer confidence just posted its biggest gain in 17 years for the month of September, aided by the section asking Americans whether they are experiencing an improvement in the outlook for jobs, we should be prepared for a pleasant surprise with unemployment falling faster than anticipated.