Erdogan Puts Himself in a Bind in Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict
Having committed himself to the Azeri cause, Turkey’s president will now find it harder to climb down.
Clashes continue at Azerbaijan-Armenia contact line.
Photographer: Resul Rehimov/Anadolu Agency
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s alliance of convenience with Vladimir Putin has survived conflicts of interest in Syria and Libya, but it faces a sterner test in the Caucasus, where the outbreak of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan puts the leaders of Turkey and Russia in opposition. And having burned his bridges with Europe and expended most of his brownie points with the U.S., Erdogan clearly has the weaker hand.
Historically, the region has sat in the Venn-diagram overlap of Russian and Turkish spheres of influence; in recent decades, Moscow has had the stronger claim. Although the Caucasian republics broke free with the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia sees itself as the regional policeman, dispensing punishment and making peace as the Kremlin deems fit.