Trump’s Threat to Democracy Threatens the Economy

It’s still possible the November election will go off without a hitch and be settled the way most elections are settled -- by simply counting the votes, assigning electors based on statewide majorities and letting the constitutional rules decide who won. But this outcome is looking less likely by the day. It’s an open question what effect a contested election and a constitutional crisis would have on the U.S. economy — but it probably won’t be good.

President Donald Trump has increasingly signaled he won’t accept an election that doesn’t result in his own victory. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, many voters are reluctant to go to crowded polling places and want to vote by mail. Supporters of Joe Biden appear far more likely to mail in their votes. But Trump has claimed (without evidence) that mail-in votes are widely fraudulent. And he has suggested he won’t accept an outcome in which Biden’s margin of victory comes via the mail.