What to Expect on an Odd Election Night
This year will involve more absentee ballots and less certainty on the day of the vote. That’s no reason for panic.
It might take a while.
Photographer: Eric Engman/Getty
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A Democratic data and analytics group called Hawkfish (disclosure: funded by Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP) is sounding the alarm about what they’ve named the “red mirage” — the pattern in which election night vote counts will tend to be more Republican than the eventual final tally. That’s been the case for several election cycles, and there’s a good chance the effect will be magnified this year for two reasons: More voters are choosing to vote absentee, and because of President Donald Trump’s scare stories, more Democrats than Republicans will likely be mailing in their votes.