Hal Brands, Columnist

If America and China Go to War, It Won’t Be an Accident

History doesn't support the idea that countries "stumble" into major conflict.

August 7, 2020 at 1:00 PM UTC

Hal Brands is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.

Fog of war?
Photographer: Mark Schiefelbein/AFP/Getty Images

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U.S.-China relations are deteriorating by the day, and the bad news is that the two countries could end up fighting in the coming decade. The good news is that such a war won’t start by accident.

There is a venerable argument that states can stumble into a major conflict that neither truly desires, and it has been revived as tensions between the two great powers escalate. Nevertheless, history shows that big wars don't just happen inadvertently.