Why Egypt And Ethiopia Can’t Reach a Dam Deal

Ethiopia has announced that its latest talks with Egypt over a giant dam on the Blue Nile have achieved a mutual understanding, paving the way for a “breakthrough agreement.” Given the history of claims and counterclaims attending the negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, this should be taken with skepticism. There have been several occasions in this decade-old dispute when, after a bout of heated discussion, both sides have put out contradictory statements on what was agreed.

The Egyptian characterization of the latest round, mediated by the African Union, is more muted than Ethiopia’s. Cairo says the parties have agreed to continuing talks with the goal of establishing a binding mechanism governing the filling and usage of the dam—a longstanding Egyptian demand. Addis Ababa says the goal of future talks will be a “comprehensive” agreement, rather than “binding” one. The distinction is important: Egypt has previously made it clear that it will settle for nothing less than a cast-iron commitment from Ethiopia on rules governing the management of the dam.