Revenge Doesn’t Explain Rise in Chinese Property Prices

Real estate becomes a safe bet in uncertain times, and it’s proving true in China after months of pent-up demand from the pandemic runs into an outlook still filled with uncertainty.

The problem, as we’ve seen time and again, is that anyone hoping for security from a market that’s heavily controlled may be in for disappointment, as the government will inevitably tighten limits when prices rise too much. Beijing should instead ramp up secure options for investors, such as accelerating the offering of real estate investment trusts.

Recent gains in mainland real estate prices have all the hallmarks of so-called revenge spending for big purchases after lockdowns eased. Prices rose in May at the fastest pace in seven months, and analysts think June will be even better. Sales by the 16 developers Bloomberg Intelligence tracks rose an average 13% in June versus a year earlier.

It might look like a splurge, yet there are signs that these gains will be sustainable, even if capped by government policy that discourages speculation in favor of habitation. Expect selective rises where people feel their money is safe, like big tier-one cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, as well as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, part of the government-promoted Greater Bay Area that encompasses Hong Kong and Macau.

There’s certainly a desire to scratch the spending itch. Much of China’s economy was shut in the spring as the government, keen to stop Covid-19 from spreading, halted land sales to developers and purchases of homes. Now developers have come back in with huge discounts. But there are deeper factors at play that should keep lifting prices.

First, since the coronavirus hit, the government has been easing credit. Mortgage rates are at 33-month lows, with the average for a first-time home buyer at 5.28%. Many shut out from an increasingly unaffordable housing market are taking advantage, as are investors keen for something safer than volatile stocks.

Second, the government is creating demand in some cities, loosening residency rules to encourage people to move in from rural areas. The theory is that a larger urban class boosts consumption — though what it has really lifted is buying homes. The reform of local residency permits includes easing access to these “hukou” for anyone with tertiary education in cities like Hangzhou, where Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. is based. The city of 10 million people added 554,000 residents last year, the biggest increase in permanent population of any city in China.