It’s 2024, and We’re Still Stuck at Home
Wishful thinking can’t overcome the scientific models that point to years of Covid-19 outbreaks.
Real data points the other way.
Photographer: Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images
Around the world, people are itching to end lockdowns. Road traffic is rising in the U.K., while garden centers and hardware shops have reopened. In a handful of U.S. states, hair stylists are back at work and restaurants and movie theaters have opened. Germans are shopping again, although many remain wary of the risks.
That caution is well advised. The example of China, as well as epidemiologic models attuned to the longer-term aspects of the pandemic, suggests that most nations are many months away from anything like normal, even with continued social distancing. In the U.S., realistic scenarios include the chance of a new winter epidemic, as well as sporadic outbreaks further on.