About That V-Shaped Recovery ...

It was clear from the start that the coronavirus slump was a strange kind of recession. Some economists even thought “recession” was the wrong word. The setback would be brief and severe, many believed, a deliberately induced shock to the supply side of the economy. But within a few months and before much lasting damage was done, governments could lift the restrictions and switch their economies on again. Output would quickly surge back. The path through the emergency would be V-shaped — not U-shaped, much less L-shaped.

This is no longer plausible. Some countries have begun easing restrictions and letting some of their businesses start up again. Others are getting ready to. But they’re moving cautiously. They’ve found that even very strict controls have only slowed new infections, not stopped them. If they ease too much, there might be new waves, maybe worse than the first, and they’ll have to put lockdowns back in place. Governments are being advised that some restrictions might be needed indefinitely, until a vaccine is available and widely deployed.