Fortune Will Favor Miners with Nerves of Steel
They have a record of buying at the top and selling in the trough. This crisis could be different, if cash-rich groups have the mettle.
When in a hole, start digging — if you have the money.
Photographer: Matthew Staver/Bloomberg
After years of buying at the peak of the economic cycle and selling in the trough, could the world’s big diggers do the reverse? Compared to peers in oil and gas, Rio Tinto Group and the largest diversified miners are riding out the coronavirus storm in sheltered positions: They have low operating costs, little debt and more than $60 billion in liquidity.
History matters here. Just over a decade ago, miners binged on hubristic investments like Rio’s acquisition of aluminum producer Alcan or Anglo American Plc’s Minas Rio iron-ore venture. In the hangover years between 2012 and 2016, some $200 billion was written off, and a generation of chief executives were shown the door. It was a near-death experience akin to what the energy sector is going through today, and one that left behind an industry focused on cleaning up, cutting back and returning cash to shareholders. Rio has been among the most generous, handing back $36 billion since 2016.