James Greiff , Columnist

The Great Recession Was Bad. The ‘Great Lockdown’ Is Worse.

The IMF predicts this year’s economic slump will be the worst since the Great Depression. Bloomberg Opinion columnists weigh in.

April 14, 2020 at 6:57 PM UTC

By James Greiff

James Greiff is an editor for Bloomberg Opinion. He was Wall Street news team leader at Bloomberg News and senior editor for Bloomberg Markets magazine. He previously reported on banking for the St. Petersburg Times and the Charlotte Observer.

The coronavirus recession is going to be bad — and that's if things go well.
Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images North America

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The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday issued a stunning global economic forecast after most of the world's biggest nations shut down almost all nonessential businesses amid the coronavirus pandemic: The unfolding recession will be much worse than the 2008-09 financial crisis and may be surpassed only by the Great Depression.

What the IMF refers to as the "Great Lockdown" recession will cause global growth to decline by 3% this year, a sharp reversal from the 3.3% expansion it predicted in January before the disease spread to the world's industrialized nations and many emerging markets. By comparison, world growth fell just 0.1% in 2009 during the financial crisis.

We asked Bloomberg Opinion columnists and contributors who write about the economy to share their thoughts:

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco: