240,000 U.S. Virus Deaths Don't Have to Happen

The Trump administration's Covid-19 task force prepared the country for the possibility that 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die from the virus at a Tuesday evening press conference. Those shocking figures aren't a guess or worst-case scenario but come from a group of widely respected scientists whose models all assume that serious social- distancing measures are in place. They paint a grim picture, but it’s important to remember they are still only projections, and can change based on actions taken now.

According to task force experts Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci, it's not too late to reduce mortality and ease pressure on hospitals — if Americans commit to keeping apart. That view is based in part on a separate model developed by the University of Washington, which was used as a reference point at Tuesday’s briefing. It is unique in that it provides evolving, state-by-state projections that more closely reflect the data on the ground on any given day, including the most recent death rates and distancing information. This model, which assumes much more rigorous lockdown measures will be broadly implemented soon, predicts a mean death toll of around 94,000. But it also carries a warning: Its latest projection, while lower than the others, has climbed 10,000 since its initial release last week.