Science Isn’t A Clear-Cut Pandemic Guide
It helps to understand what goes into Imperial and Oxford’s predictive coronavirus models, and what they can and can’t do.
Following the data.
Source: Schenectady Museum Association/Corbis Historical
With every new policy to combat the spread of Covid-19, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has reassured the country that he’s being guided by the science. It’s the science that told him to hold back public measures as the virus got off to a running start, the science that prompted him to shun mass testing and contact tracing, the science that recommended an eventual lockdown and a ramping up of testing. Now the science says that it could be six months before we see anything that looks like the old normal. Science is confusing stuff.
At the forefront of the confusion are those modeling this pandemic and the curve we desperately need to flatten. The language of models, and modelers, is at odds with the demands and communication style of the world of politics and policy. The complexity of models — and their underlying uncertainty — gives rise to misunderstandings and, when leaned on too heavily, to policy mistakes.