Americans’ Life Expectancy Won’t Change Much Anytime Soon
An easing of the opioid epidemic has brought the first increase in four years, but other factors seem likely to mute further gains.
Here’s to many more years together.
Photographer: John Moore/Getty ImagesU.S. life expectancy rose in 2018 for the first time in four years, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced back at the end of January. This got some attention but not a huge amount, which was understandable given that the rise was only from 78.6 years to 78.7 years, and life expectancy remains below its 2014 peak of 78.9 years. Since 2010, life expectancy in the U.S. has more or less flatlined.
That ominous one-year drop in the second decade of the 20th century was due mainly to the influenza pandemic of 1918. It is conceivable that the Covid-19 coronavirus now spreading around the U.S. will also make a noticeable dent in life expectancy, but it’s unlikely to be nearly as big. Covid-19 seems relatively benign for those under 50, while the 1918 flu was especially hard on young adults, and a bunch of 25-year-olds dying puts a lot more downward pressure on average life expectancy than an equal number of 65-year-olds.