Ireland Brings New Twist to Populism

Sinn Fein’s electoral smash in Ireland is a historic moment for a party that has long had difficulty shaking off its past ties to the sectarian violence of the Troubles. It’s clear that the party’s new leader and a policy platform based around fixing the country’s housing crisis and improving public services have struck a chord with the public. That was especially true with the under-35s, for whom peace in Ireland has been the norm rather than the exception.

It’s less clear what winning the popular vote will really mean for Sinn Fein in a country where the two dominant establishment parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, still command a sizable chunk of the vote and have more middle-of-the-road policy ideas. If this is the moment populism breaks the two-party grip on the Irish government, it will be very different to the forces that have shaken neighboring Britain, be it the euroskepticism of the Brexit vote or the sweeping hard-left economic changes espoused by Jeremy Corbyn before he was defeated in December.

It must be said that Sinn Fein’s victory did not come out of the blue. The party’s process of “normalization” has been going on for years as it gradually built up support at successive elections — in fits and starts, as seen elsewhere when armed rebel groups become unarmed political parties. Between 1997 and 2005 Sinn Fein’s share of the vote went from 16.9% to 23.3%, according to Birmingham University’s Matthew Whiting; grabbing a quarter of the first-round preference vote this weekend was a big improvement on its 14% share in 2016.