Thailand's Economy Was Already Sickening

Outside China, Thailand has the largest number of patients infected by the novel coronavirus. Unfortunately, the export-reliant $500 billion economy, Southeast Asia’s second-largest, was sickly even before the outbreak of the pneumonia-like illness. That reflects simultaneous blows from the Sino-U.S. trade war, the worst drought in decades and a stubbornly strong currency. Add in Beijing’s newly imposed restrictions on Chinese travelers, who account for the lion's share of arrivals, plus the knock-on effect on other tourists, and a recession begins to look imminent.

Thailand has lagged its Southeast Asian neighbors for some time. While political upheaval has been a major drag, there are others too: an aging population, poor productivity, flatlining consumption and hefty household debt. The central bank now expects GDP growth of 2.5% for 2019. That’s considerably worse than even lackluster peers like Malaysia and Indonesia, and the country’s weakest pace since 2014, the year a military junta took power.