When China’s Market Reopens, the Wild Guessing Games Begin
Investors will be fixated on two numbers that should reveal whether Beijing is up to task. Trading won’t be for the fainthearted.
Ready, fire, aim.
Photographer: picture alliance/dpa/picture alliance7,000 or 40,000? 3% or 7%? As the Chinese hunker down for an extended Lunar New Year break, forced upon them by a raging epidemic, they’re turning to wild guessing games over two crucial figures: How many more will be infected by the SARS-like coronavirus, and how big a selloff we will see when the mainland market reopens Monday.
So far, China has confirmed about 7,000 cases, but the actual number — including those in the incubation stage — could have already exceeded 44,000. As for the stock market, the world has turned upside down since its last trading day on Jan. 23, when only 830 infected cases were confirmed. The 3.1% correction of the benchmark Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index that day could just be the beginning of a long way down.