Vince Cable, Columnist

Can Boris Johnson Double U.K. Growth? Don’t Bet on It

The U.K. leaves the EU on Jan. 31. That will prove easier than the doubling of growth that the prime minister has promised.

January 27, 2020 at 6:30 AM UTC

By Vince Cable

Vince Cable is a former U.K. secretary of state for business and was leader of the Liberal Democrats from 2017 to 2019. He was previously chief economist at Royal Dutch Shell. He is currently a visiting professor at the London School of Economics. His next book, "Politicians and the Politics of Economics," will be published later this year.

Bullish on growth.
Photographer: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

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As part of his promise to deliver the benefits of Brexit after the U.K. leaves the European Union this Friday, Boris Johnson has set a goal of doubling the rate of economic growth after the U.K. leaves the European Union. That aspiration could be treated as a rhetorical flourish, like Donald Trump’s belief that the United States can get to 4% or even 5% annual growth by following “Trumponomics,” but I will take it seriously.

At first glance the hope is ambitious but not outrageous. The International Monetary Fund baseline forecast is just under 1.5% growth per year for the expected five years of this Johnson government. The trend growth rate pre-financial crisis through the chancellorships of Kenneth Clarke and Gordon Brown – between 1993 and 2007 -- was around 2.75%. So the Johnson proposition is that Britain can return to its pre-crisis economic performance or a bit better.