Jonathan Bernstein, Columnist

Iowa Caucus History Shows Winning Isn't Everything

History shows that in early presidential nominating contests, getting the most votes doesn’t necessarily confer the biggest advantage.

January 17, 2020 at 12:18 PM UTC

Corrected

January 17, 2020 at 7:41 PM UTC

By Jonathan Bernstein

Jonathan Bernstein is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering politics. A former professor of political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio, he wrote A Plain Blog About Politics.

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With the Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses now close, media attention is growing on the new way that Iowa Democrats will report their results. Or I should say: New ways. Because unlike the past, we’ll actually be getting three different sets of numbers — and that could produce two or even three candidates who could plausibly declare victory. (The Associated Press has announced that it will be using the old-style numbers to declare a winner; for a thorough look at what the different numbers represent, see Brianne Pfannenstiel’s explanation in the Des Moines Register.)