Julian Lee, Columnist

Policing OPEC's Oil Deal Risks A Price Crash

Saudi Arabia is trying everything to make sure the latest oil deal sticks. When it doesn't, the kingdom will be stuck between a rock and a very hard place.

December 8, 2019 at 7:00 AM UTC

By Julian Lee

Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg. Previously, he was a senior analyst at the Centre for Global Energy Studies.

Who’s in the driving seat?
Photographer: Stefan Wermuth/Bloomberg

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Like so many in the past, the latest deal by the world’s major oil producing countries to reduce supply and boost prices relies on persuading the cheats to adhere to the output cuts they’ve agreed to. I don’t hold out much hope that they will change their behavior and that will leave Saudi Arabia with a choice between two bad options — continue to bear a disproportionate share of the burden, or open the taps to teach them a lesson.

Saudi Arabia’s new oil minister Prince Abdulaziz Bin Salman brought a quasi-religious language to his attempt to bolster a new output deal ahead of Friday’s OPEC+ gathering in Vienna.