Who Could Win Iowa? Pretty Much Anyone.
If history tells us anything, it’s to expect the unexpected in the first contest of the 2020 race.
It could happen.
Photographer: Chip Somodevilla/Getty
CNN’s Harry Enten earlier this week said something pretty reasonable: “Seems well within the bounds of possibilities that Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg or Biden win IA and NH. All could finish fourth in both too. Crazy.”
My response? Any of them could finish as badly as seventh in Iowa. After all, Senator Kamala Harris peaked at 16% and second place in the RealClearPolitics Iowa polling average back in August. Now — just three months later — she’s a bit below 3%, behind six other candidates. We’re about three months away from the caucuses now. I’ll admit it’s a stretch to imagine Senator Elizabeth Warren, who leads the Iowa average at 23%, falling that far that fast. But the rest? Sure.