Protests in Lebanon and Iraq Are Doomed to Fail

Lebanon and Iraq are the Arab countries most disfigured by highly sectarian politics, and not coincidentally, dominated by Iran. So it is reassuring, even inspiring, that the mass protests rocking both countries are entirely secular in character.

Alas, they are probably doomed to fail. The protesters, lacking both organization and a programmatic agenda, have little chance of altering the political structures in both countries, which are entirely sectarian. To protect Iran’s influence, its proxies in both countries are reacting with threats and violence. In the recent history of rebellions in the neighborhood are any guide, the sectarian establishment will ride out the demonstrations, and hijack any concessions the protesters secure from the power-centers in Beirut and Baghdad.