No, It’s Not a Two-Person Race for 2020

Let’s go through this one more time: It’s possible that we understand exactly how the Democratic nomination race is shaping up. But it’s more likely that we don’t.

Everyone seems to be more or less convinced that Elizabeth Warren is now the leading candidate, or perhaps that Warren and Joe Biden are co-leaders. Pundits are asking whether Biden can survive losing Iowa and New Hampshire, and whether his big polling lead in South Carolina can hold up. Those are fair questions. But I’m going to insist – one more time – that it’s still early.