Michael R. Strain, Columnist

If Trump Causes a Recession, How Severe Will It Be?

Economic indicators aren’t even pointing to a mild recession. Here's how the floor could collapse.

August 28, 2019 at 3:30 PM UTC

Michael R. Strain is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is director of economic policy studies and Arthur F. Burns Scholar in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute. He is the author of “The American Dream Is Not Dead: (But Populism Could Kill It).”

Let’s hope his political self-interest restrains him.
Photographer: Alex Edelan/Bloomberg

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Based on the data for the U.S. economy’s performance, concerns about a recession in the near term seem overblown. Consumer spending constitutes about 70 percent of overall economic activity, and it is providing a firm foundation, fueled by accelerating wage growth and a healthy job market.

The labor market’s strength is diminishing, but it is still strong. More jobs are added each month than are needed to keep up with population growth, unemployment is at a decades-low rate, and the rate of employment is on an upward trend.