, Columnist
How Democrats Can Win Back Obama-Trump Voters in 2020
Those who made the shift in the last election voted according to their economic interests, and that isn’t about to change.
How did we get here?
Photographer: Scott Olson/Getty Images
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A central question of the 2020 presidential election is this: What will become of the Obama-to-Trump voters? These voters totaled approximately 6 million and were crucial to the outcome of the 2016 election. Without them, Donald Trump would have lost to Hillary Clinton in the Electoral College by a sizable margin. What should we expect of them this time around?
A study I conducted with my colleague Jiwon Lee, using the American National Election Study — the most precise accounting of actual voters — offers some clues.