Maybe the Economy Won’t Re-Elect Trump After All

No matter how low his approval rating has fallen, no matter how many different people are investigating him, President Donald Trump has always had a strong economy on his side. But that security blanket may be shrinking.

As pundits have noted recently, forecasting models based on economic growth point to a Trump re-election in 2020. These models were almost alone in predicting Trump’s election in 2016, writes Karl Smith. But he also notes some of the same economic trends that helped doom Hillary Clinton are setting up to worry Trump in 2020. The economy needn’t be in full-on recession to hurt the White House incumbent, Karl writes; it wasn’t quite there in 2016. If it’s just moving in the wrong direction, then voters may look for other options.